In NY, even if he’s sentenced to prison, it’s up to the judge’s discretion whether he has to report to prison while awaiting appeal…and we all know he’s going to appeal.

H

No no, keep going

This is going to pop into my head every time I think about the conviction. I hope you understand that. You are part of my life now.

I have doubts he will do any time.

Says he’ll likely just pay a fine. “Can afford the fine, can do the crime” is more like it.

Some other Lemmy commenter suggested community service instead of jail time.
There’s something very appealing about the prospect of Trump, in a high-vis vest, picking up trash along the side of the freeway.

|Get fucked!

Rule of 34 charges.

They were locker room felonies.

Some undecideds, sure. It only takes ten thousand voters in a couple swing states to change the outcome.

To many of them, no. To some who would have voted for him, maybe yes.

Everyone talks about his base as an unmoving monolith. But to get elected, he needs more than his base. He needs the fence sitters. Many of these people may be very ill informed about all the corruption in his original administration and his business dealings. This result will make a big difference to them because it’s simple to understand. He’s a convicted felon.

There’s some evidence to suggest he’ll lose significant support: https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/48654-would-donald-trump-conviction-move-his-voters-evidence-from-past-present-bill-clinton-polls

But hard to know for sure.

I think “all 34 counts” is more meaningful than 33 out 34 or anything less.

Any truly room temperature IQ folks out there can maybe see the light. Maybe.

My gut feeling is there’s nothing in this world that will sway his core supporters. Those rabid mouth-breathing dumbass kool-aid drinking dipshits would disown their own children if they thought one of them voted for a democrat.

However, I think it could sway a lot of swing voters away from Trump. In American elections for POTUS, swing voters are extremely important.

Unfortunately, Biden is fucking up so bad on foreign policy (Gaza) that will lose Biden a lot of swing voters, too. Still anybody’s race is my guess.

This is just all my gut. It’s hard to trust polls anymore.

It emboldens his supporters because they believe the “deep state”, “witch hunt”, “Democrats paid off the jury” etc according to social media now.

I could see Biden dropping out of the debate also saying “I don’t debate felons”.

1 in 6 say it could change their mind https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/one-in-six-voters-say-trump-verdict-could-change-their-minds-ahead-of-tight-election-poll-finds/ar-BB1nl6y2

Nope, it’s just going to be more proof that he’s the guy to take on the ‘deep state’ and so on in their minds.

Doubt it, but I don’t care. They are basically a cult at this point, no rational thought.

This matters to everyone else. And it could keep him from being president again.

I think this will only strengthen his core supporters because they’ll view him as a martyr. It might push away some people on the fence. But I think the martyrdom angle and the increased media spotlight could pull some people back in. Personally I think it probably won’t make a difference overall. All publicity is good publicity.

Some of them yes, some of them no.

Nah. I could see this actually being a positive to his brain-dead supporters.

It emboldens them because he already painted himself the victim, the outsider. He literally called it a witch hunt.

Anecdotal… we drove through rural Ohio a few weeks ago. In several hours of travel we only saw ONE trump sign. The same place in 2016 or 2020 would have been full of them. Regardless of the impact of this, the enthusiasm is dead. There might be “maga guys” on Twitter but they’re largely disengaged in real life.

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Something to keep in mind is that as of right now, he is guilty. If sentencing decides he goes to jail (very unlikely), they do not have to let him go free while the appeal takes place.

More likely though, is that he’ll be bound by the terms of probation. Which is potentially hilarious, since it means the probation officer can enter his home at will, send him to jail if he knowingly communicates with a felon, and can deny his requests to leave the jurisdiction he was convicted in essentially at will. He needs to be available to be interviewed by the probation at their discretion anywhere he is, and the probation officer can deny his living arrangements if they believe it creates a risk of a prohibited behavior.

It’s unlikely, but a particularly vindictive parole officer could make a very legitimate argument that attending the convention where they vote on making Trump the Republican candidate must be denied due to the likelihood of associating with known felons or former criminal associates related to his conviction.

If would be petty, but it’s not like anyone has put much care into abuse in the probation and parole system before, so…

Is an appeal after a jury trial possible? I thought i had heard it was final?

The whole flippin’ world will be watching that live.

That would be awesome. He should totally go for it: claim the court isn’t legitimate or binding or whatever, and just try to ignore it.