People keep talking about “Federalizing the National Guard” and now you’ve got other States pledging their NG to Texas in defiance of the Supreme Court (see image).
So is this what CW2 looks like?
P.S. I’m a Brit
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Highly unlikely this is what the civil war would be like. It’s not a state v state thing necessarily although that might be a small part of it. In the first civil war, the south unified and its people largely supported the war, except their slaves. It’s unlikely something like that will happen again. It’s not impossible but unlikely.
What is much more likely is rural v city. Even in red states, cities are blue and will often vote for blue policies. Rural areas are where things get dicey. They’ve been largely left behind by the surge in industry and general expansion of the capitalist economy we currently have (they’ve had a lot of businesses (including grocery stores) close because more people are leaving, and their rural towns are frequently having their hospitals close leaving large swaths of areas where the nearest hospital is an hour away). As such, they’ve got a grudge against the cities. What’s likely to happen is rural counties and their local governments trying to cut off their food supply, starving the cities to win the battle. There’s tons more possibilities, but this one I think is the one that’s got the highest likelihood.
Another possibility that is scary, but is highly dependent on the party of the people in power, is the government using their power to actually strike the cities, like in Syria where Assad bombed and used chemical weapons on his own people. Syria is actually a pretty good example of what more modern civil wars are like, or can be like. Governments v rebels and militias, and cities v rural (although there’s much less rural land in Syria).
If you’re interested, the podcast It Could Happen Here has a great first season where they go over possible disasters including a civil war and a pandemic (it was actually made in 2019 so before covid). It’s really helpful and can teach a lot, especially for an outsider from across the pond. It also does a lot better job giving an explanation and actual sources.
Hope this helps since it didn’t seem like you were getting a real answer.
The geographical separation of slave states by an actual border allowed the first Civil War to take place on a perfect stage for traditional warfare. North/South and the formal joining of the Confederacy by state governments kept it all straightforward.
It definitely won’t be that simple again.
I also recommend It Could Happen Here
I had to stop listening to ICHH it gave me way too much anxiety and was just too stressed back when i listened in 2020. I’ve since taken up to instead listen to BTB and cool people who did cool stuff off the same network. Monsters that are usually dead and people who kick ass make me feel better.
Another thing the world ought to know is that the folks who are identified by “red” and “right” in America are in the minority.
Significantly so.
However our voting system uses geography / land as a modifier so while there are less of them they occupy a larger land mass and have an outsized vote strength because of that.
When total votes in a state can be split 45-55 but the delegates go 90-10 there is a problem
Another fun thing about that is that most folks who identify “red” or “right” actually aren’t paying enough attention to know that. Go ask them, they think people like them make up 70% or more of the country. If they do try to activate their little civil war they are going to find themselves very quickly surrounded by folks who do not like them at all, as their expected 200-million strong army ends up actually only being 1.5 million people spread out over 30,000+ square miles. Watching the realization dawn on them might actually even be fun if it weren’t a herald of Troubles for America.
What is much more likely is rural v city.
Isn’t it even more likely trump disciples vs reasonable people?
This is oversimplifying the problem. Democrats from urban areas have failed for decades to adequately address the needs and concerns of rural voters. When one party ignores you (and often speaks of you with open contempt), it’s a no-brainer that you would be inclined to vote for the party that caters to your concerns. The Democrats handed rural voters to Trump on a golden platter.
It’s not a totally unreasonable impression, but no, this will not turn into a second civil war. The Guard units of each state can be called up for federal duty. The National Guard is part of the US Department of Defense and thus ultimately answers to the DoD and the US president as commander in chief. The US military has multiple components, including regular services (eg the full time Army), reserve components (eg US Army Reserve) and National Guard components. The latter two are part-time military with one weekend per month training duty plus an annual training. Guards members and Reservists hold regular full time jobs.
The Guard units are deployable by the governors of their respective states, and so can be used in emergency situations like natural disasters. They have also been deployed against what have been perceived as riots that threaten lives and properties of the individual states.
However, they are subject to activation by order of the US president and they fall under the national command authority. Guard personnel take the same oath to the constitution as other military personnel, and cannot legally refuse federal activation. Guards personnel would be subject to courts martial and face potentially extreme penalties including being discharged from service under criminal conditions, being stripped of rank and benefits, and jail time in federal prison. This would be what we call a career limiting rule.
So, if push comes to shove, Biden can activate the NG and order them to stand down or to implement policies to maintain order. Thinking the NG units and in particular their commanders would disobey a presidential order because they just love their state governor and hate the president so much is getting into Turner Diaries levels of right wing apocalyptic fantasy.
All of which misses a critical point:
The forming of the Confederacy wasn’t “legal” either.
We can handwave away concerns about mounting threats of violence by citing regulation and law, but none of that actually addresses the underlying issue that if these people want to start shit, they will find an avenue.
And let’s also not sit here, in 2024, and assume the institutions, norms, checks, and intended safeguards in our system will always work when they need to. We’ve seen far, far too many breakdowns and failures in our system over the last decade to believe otherwise.
That’s what frustrates me so much about the framing of the situation we’re in right now: most people - and the vast majority of major media organizations - are fully intent on presenting this as “normal”, but it’s very fucking clearly not. It’s assumed by so many that the rules will simply be followed… and then they turn around and cover Trump, whose whole bit is to not follow the rules because he doesn’t feel like it and wants to stay in power forever. It’s like being unconcerned about standing 3 feet away from an uncaged, unleashed siberian tiger because someone once told you at one point that it had been “trained”.
You have to understand that the US military today is a very different organization than it was in the 1860s. I know - I served and majored in military history for my first undergraduate degree, and studied the civil war in particular. I also come from a military family with a father, grandfather, and uncle who served as officers until retirement age.
Far right domestic terrorism is a real and developing threat coming from both former military personnel and from civilians. The election of a far right government that shreds the constitution is also a major threat to American democracy. But if the shit does come down, it’s not going to be because some Guardsmen decide that they’d follow DeSantis over Biden.
Military justice is no joke. Falling on the wrong side of it can end people. The military is also very integrated and has political as well as ethnic diversity. I’m not saying you couldn’t find an Army colonel who wouldn’t want to engage in an armed rebellion, but the country today is very, very different than it was mid-19th century, and so is the military.
Please do note that I do see the rise of American fascism as a real threat. It’s just not going to manifest because state Guard orgs decide to disobey orders.
Since you studied the Civil War, I got a book from my grandfather before he passed, Don’t Know Much about The Civil War, by Kenneth C. Davis, and was wondering if you’ve read of heard of this book and if it would be a good resource or not to read about the Civil War? Or if you can recommend another book or author that is great for learning about the Civil War, I’d appreciate any helpful insights as I’m curious to learn more about the Civil War, thank you.
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Robert E Lee famously didn’t want to fight the North but didn’t think of himself as a traitor for doing so, because his loyalty was to his state first, to the US second. And that was a common mindset at the time.
I think it’s possible that there will be resentment, but those with rank would be risking everything for zero gain. It would be determined by the people who wear the birds and the stars, and although there have certainly been high ranking officers who have engaged in conduct we might consider treasonous, it’s simply not going to be a common enough occurrence.
A Handmaid’s Tale scenario, where the US goes down the path of a Christian theocracy, is a possibility that concerns me,
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You also have to factor in the fact that the military today is not a bunch of guys with rifles. It is carrier battle groups, fighter jets, sophisticated artillery systems, and other platforms that require massive supply chains to deploy and maintain. That’s just what modern warfare is. US aircraft carriers alone are crewed by 5000+ people.
Raytheon, Northrop, and Lockheed are not going to side with Ohio against the US government. The question is about civil war, not about a single military unit going rogue until the members are arrested or killed. Keeping planes in the air and tanks running requires a lot more than Ohio can do. The Feds spend about a trillion dollars per year on the military, and some Confederate missile battery is going to be in trouble once they run low on things to shoot and when their vehicles start to break down.
I’m not a fan of the military industrial complex, to say the least, but it’s an absolutely necessary part of warfare today.
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Unlikely, but if those ng declined federal call up, then all bets are off
They have also been deployed against what have been perceived as riots that threaten lives and properties of the individual states.
Yeah, like when they got called up against random citizens in Minneapolis…
It’s not a new civil war reason. It’s the same one as last time just packaged up a little different.
Racism
It’s not even a new civil war. The last civil war only ended technically. In reality it went cold and has still been being waged all this time. It turned from a war of the rural South against the industrialised north. To a war on the industrialized from the rural.
This is exactly why DeSantis wants to revive the Florida State Guard.
Biden should ignore Abbott right until the point he signs an order to interfere with Federal agents on duty. Then it’s a conspiracy & the Insurrection Act can be brought into play to clean house.
Oh goody goody gooooody!!! 🍿
Florida State Guard
I had to search for that and it sounds kinda bad for states to have their own armies. I mean it’s practically the definition of raising an army in opposition to the Federal government. Looking at Wikipedia it was first activated in WWII to make up for the national guard going to war.
That bit makes sense.
But you’re not at war and you just reactivated it in 2020. Why? Why would Florida need it’s own army? That’d be like the Wales FM creating it’s own guard. By it’s nature it’s in direct opposition to the national (British) military. There’s no other way of looking at it.
That feels like a major thing. Am I taking crazy pills - why is no one screaming? This is bad!!
Am I taking crazy pills - why is no one screaming? This is bad!!
This dog stays barking every single year and hasn’t bit anyone yet. Getting tired of hearing about it. Either they’re going to do something or they won’t, if they don’t, then they can shut the fuck up and life goes back to normal. If they do decide to finally do something about it, Texas gets razed to the ground and we rebuild NASA somewhere else. There is no situation here in which any significant percentage of people, except Texans, are going to be in danger. They will not take on the greater federal US and win, it’s not gonna happen. If they secede, they die, after losing all federal safety nets and trade agreements and then getting invaded by cartels. If they attempt an actual shooting war, they die, as 25,000 cowpokes show up with surplus AR’s just in time for Lockheed Martin to put a warhead on their foreheads.
I want to be clear that I’m not in any way looking forward to this. It’s going to be rough and innocent people will die. But there is no legitimate path forward in which Texas doesn’t, at best, eat its hat. However that won’t stop them from threatening secession constantly. Any time something doesn’t go their way - “oh, oh, but I’ll leave the union! What then??? What’ll you do without Texas??” Fuck off Texas. Either shit or get off the pot but I’m tired of hearing about it. Texas brings nothing irreplaceable to the table and while I definitely do not think that turning Texas into glass is the good ending, it sure is one ending, and might be the one Texas chooses. Regardless I’m not that worried about it. The Gravy Seals wouldn’t stand up to an actual well-regulated militia let alone the full force and might of the United States Army. And there are a lot more leftists with guns than the Gravies think there are.
Edit: just realized this was intended in the context of the Florida State Guard - that I know almost nothing about. But Florida is perhaps even less threatening than Texas, and since DeSantis has been in charge they’ve been doing a lot of nearly identical toothless posturing. All arguments also apply to Florida, except that at least 21% of their population is retirement age or older so they don’t even have that many fresh bodies to call on when their state guard gets turned into burger meat within two days of declaration of war.
Seems to be a distinct possibility. Posturing prior to the election, rattling sabers, they’re spoiling for a full-on shootin’ war contingent on losing the election, in my opinion.
edit: I dare say, it might even be strategically advantageous for them to intentionally try lose, claim it was rigged, and use that to go live with the 4th riech.
I think the tactical nukes will slow their ambitions for another hundred or so years. We can’t take these posturing fools seriously.
We can’t take these posturing fools seriously
Have you just not been paying attention for the last…decade?
Yes, we absolutely should.
No one is using a tactical nuke on US soil. We have enough conventional bombs to destroy ourselves anyway.
And yet, we must. Assume your enemy will lose, but prepare for them to win.
I read how most experts agree that there will be some kind of “constitutional crisis” within the next decade. The impeachment 1, impeachment 2, and January 6 attacks already show the rumblings of what is to come.
Personally I find it doubtful that a full civil war would be the means though bc of the disparity b/t military resources at the federal vs. lower levels. Thus, probably something else, perhaps extremely mundane e.g. Trump runs for President, and bc of the Israeli conflict in Gaza and whatever else Russia manufactures between now and then Biden loses, then Trump simply declares himself Emperor.
Or maybe even that much paperwork will not happen and the government will simply never pass another federal budget again, thus ending the federal level by default of obstruction.
So probably not Civil War, at this time and over this event (no matter how much the clickbait media tries to get its clicks), but even so… something is coming indeed, down the road in some form.
Honestly, it’ll probably wind up becoming an American version of The Troubles. Republicans are cowards, and I doubt there are very many who are truly willing to fight and die for their cause. However, there are plenty of people willing to commit terrorist bombings and acts of sabotage if they think they can get away with it, and the US is huge. There are still plenty of places to hide if that’s the case.
And if Trump wins reelection, I can’t imagine many blue states putting up with it, and the same thing will happen from the opposite direction.
If it does go down, it’ll be rural people driving into cities to shoot them up, plant bombs, or drive people over with their trucks. That’s what it’ll look like.
“Will”? Check the news… it’s been happening for awhile, just not terribly successfully. I think we get something like at least one such event every other month.
Hm… I should get a gun. And a passport.
Skip the gun. No civilized country will let you have it.
Need something for on the way to the airport
A car is probably better to go to the airport.
yes but they can shoot behind them the whole time offering small but important time savings from the boost it provides
A car with guns fastened to it.
This has to be purposefully not getting media coverage so as to not incite panic/public support, right? When I saw the first ruling posted by Gov Abbott it seemed almost like a secessionist rant, but it’s NO WHERE to be seen in MSM
I’d say its not getting coverage because Texas talks about seceding almost every year and states have been using their national guard as political tools for years now.
When the national guard was sent to DC after the insurrection, Texas pulled their national guard back because of “poor treatment”. I was there, there was no poor treatment. Texas (and several more states afterwards) used their national guard as a political tool to make the other side seem bad.
Attention is what they want. They want drama. They want the illusion of high stakes. We shouldn’t give them what they want.
“Fuck yeah, secession!” Says the Texan from the comfort of their lounge chair, beer in hand.
These people are too comfortable to ever be willing to die for their stupid ideals. All it took was one MAGA idiot to get blasted on Jan 6th and then they all scattered like roaches. As soon as their lives were on the line, it was no longer a matter of grave importance. They all firmly believed that democracy was at stake, but were unwilling to fight for it to the death because they somehow must have known that it was bullshit, somewhere in the back of their pea-sized brains, they knew.
By the time Texas starts asking people to show up to mustering fields, rifle in hand, the facade will fall apart. Biden doesn’t need to do anything. This sideshow of bluster and saber-rattling will fall apart on it’s own.
Also, millions of people living in Texas are not originally from Texas and have no particular allegiance to Texas.
Also millions of people in Texas and are FROM Texas don’t want this.
Also, as a native Texan that still lives here because it’s not feasible to leave, I feel no particular allegiance to Texas. This government doesn’t represent anything I stand for – it’s infuriating. Fuck Texas, and fuck proud Texans.
This will all blow over once Trump fucks off to private dementia care to escape prosecution.
AKA Epstein’s Loli Island
I can’t imagine it disappeared with him, I wonder who’s running it now.
Donald Trump, of course!
Gotta grab 'em by their pussies!
That’s disgusting even in context
Trump is beating Biden in the polls and bookies have him as the favroite to win.
Unless some states that matter kick him off the ballot the US is headed for 2nd Trump presidency.
Polls and Bookies: America’s finest first option for information gathered from boomers.
Taking into account the overall average of all the comments posted to tour question:
It looks one the answer is:
No one knows.
And as usual, the ones that act like they do know, are specifically the ones you should ignore.
Thanks for the summary. I just heard about the Florida State Guard in another comment. It’s been reactivated and I’m honestly more shocked that’s happened than this new thing. Creating an army separate from the main government is kinda the definition of starting an armed rebellion. But no ones panicking. The last time Florida had a state guard was WWII when it made sense cos the NG left.
But there’s no war. Everyone seems very calm and complacent right now.
Which makes me wonder - do you reckon Trump is shouting this stuff and Florida is provoking the Federal Government could be so Biden federalises so Reps can start shouting “Inssurection” and accuse him of doing what Trump did?
So basically pretend to sart a Civil War and if/when Biden moves to protect the Union Trump can scream - “EVIL INSSURECTIONIST DICTATOR”.
Cos that seems like a really, really stupid and dangerous thing to do. Normalising this level and extreme of sabre rattling is not good.
Certainly would be exciting as an Australian
Seen from the outside and ignoring all the innocent people suffering, I would love one thing about the USA splitting up, it would be the perfect example of how shitty things can get when people don’t realize they live in locations that depend on the goodwill of more progressive locations. Split the USA like on OP’s map and just watch as the red part devolves into a third world country.
It would be rad for me too. I don’t wish harm to Americans of course, but I think it’s about time they start throwing hands instead of whining on the internet 24/7 about how much they hate eachother.
I found your wife! --> 🦘
I found ya mum -> 🐄
Fuck I hate my governor…
Minnesota looking across our western border like
Please hurry, I think our state needs help
History is about to repeat itself so you know what? I’m going to sit here north of the border watching you guys burn
