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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 29th, 2023

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  • Exchange presented without comment:

    My prediction: the advance of tech by AI will far surpasse what it consume in energy.

    To look at the energy consumption of current model is extremely short sighted. If AI create a new material, a new solar cell, advance fusion reactor is all of humanity that jump forward.

    Furthermore new generation of AI accelerators and new algorithms will improve efficiency by order of magnitute, it’s still early days.

    For every good thing, come up with a bad.

    The material created will be a better poison/virus. The algorithm to keep the fusion tokamak from going boom will be at best 99% correct. The new solar cell? More exotic materials required than the current.

    Blind optimism is a vice we cannot afford.

    The post you’re responding to doesn’t argue from blind optimism, it argued a reasonably-expected gain in net beneficial effects.






  • I love this unhinged Yudkowsky quote buried in here:

    This is a filter affecting your evidence; it has not to my own knowledge filtered out a giant valid counterargument that invalidates this whole post. I would have kept silent in that case, for to speak then would have been dishonest.

    Personally, I’m used to operating without the cognitive support of a civilization in controversial domains, and have some confidence in my own ability to independently invent everything important that would be on the other side of the filter and check it myself before speaking. So you know, from having read this, that I checked all the speakable and unspeakable arguments I had thought of, and concluded that this speakable argument would be good on net to publish[…]

    Zack is actually correct that this is a pretty wild thing to say… “Rest assured that I considered all possible counterarguments against my position which I was able to generate with my mega super brain. No, I haven’t actually looked at the arguments against my position, but I’m confident in my ability to think of everything that people who disagree with me would say.”

    It so happens that Yudkowsky is on the ‘right side’ politically in this particular case, but man, this is real sloppy for someone who claims to be on the side of capital-T truth.

    The problem is… well, Zack correctly recognizes Yudkowsky is maybe not as world-changingly smart as he presents himself, and may be engaging in motivated reasoning rather than disinterested truth-seeking, but then his solution (a) doesn’t involve questioning his belief in the rest of the robot apocalypse mythos, and (b) does involve running crying directly into the arms of Moldbug and a bunch of TERFs, which like, dude. Maybe consider critically interrogating those people’s arguments too??








  • I think this person is kind of playing semantic games and being a bit fast and loose with the definition of ‘intersex.’ The logic would be something like, if it turns out that a particular AMAB person has a female gender identity due to an issue with some physical process of sexual development (maybe their brain didn’t masculinize properly due to something like prenatal hormone exposure, or because they have a minor androgen insensitivity, or something?) then you could argue that their being trans is, in a sense, an intersex condition, just one that is mild enough not to affect their physical body.*

    I think the implication being made here is “straight trans women are trans because of this kind of developmental brain thing, but non-straight trans women are trans because they’re men with a fetish. But Big Trans wants you to believe that all trans people are trans the first way (the “intersex” way), because that’s what ‘trans women are women’ means, and I’m the brave person who dares speak truth to power by saying they aren’t intersex.” So, it has… very little to do with the actual definition of “intersex” as we here in the real world use it.

    I believe this idea became part of the insane Blanchard ad-hoc theory lore via J. Michael Bailey, who wrote that book where he was like “straight trans women are all naturally fem and hot, but non straight trans women are all ugly masculine weirdos who don’t pass.” I think people in the, uh, Blanchard fandom, kind of took that idea and ran with it to an insane degree and built a whole pile of assumptions on top of it which definitely do not hold up to scrutiny, even if you set aside the fact they’re based on some random dude’s anecdote about which trans women he found most fuckable.

    *I don’t think I would personally defend this claim, but it is something I’ve heard argued, and I’m not sure it’s necessarily factually wrong so much as it is kind of a pointless semantic argument. But I’m pretty sure this is what the original poster means.