I’m not too worried about the dyed-in-the-wool Democrat from California upset that we change from Biden

Californians don’t matter here. Voters in swing states like Pennsylvania do. Ohioans are less likely to vote for Gavin Newsom over Biden. If you magically think that Newsom can ramp up a presidential campaign from scratch and beat Biden’s name recognition and win Wisconsin in only 6 months, you’re being insanely optimistic.

Look, I despise Biden since he ignored all his advisors and set a disastrous Gaza policy, and want anyone but him. He was one of the worst candidates of 2020 but since he was “the most electable” we were told to shut up and fall in line. His electability has faltered. But it’s almost July, the window of time to replace him and win already closed. I’m not going to keep arguing, we’ll agree to disagree.

a President who is predicted by polling to lose to Donald Trump.

Biden’s numbers are baked in.

No, we have a president who is ahead in some polls and behind in others, 6 months before an election (which is generally unreliable since the polls fluctuate wildly this early). Pollsters and political scientists unanimously report polling in June is not reliable this soon before Labor Day. Look back and you’ll see HIllary, Romney, and Dukakis all ahead at this point in previous elections. The reason we are having this conversation is because people got skittish about the Debate, but we don’t even have accurate post-debate survey data at this time. The snap surveys by CNN and others showed a muddle of some people claiming Biden won anyway and others not. More data will come in next week.

And don’t forget the counterfactual; if you replace Biden despite winning the primaries in a landslide, you will anger many voters. Millions of people voted for Biden and this was not close; they rejected Dean Phillips and alternatives. People voted for Harris as a known backup; skipping her and having Newsom take over will cause a storm and backlash of a size we can’t quantify yet. There simply isn’t any data on Democratic voters that show any Biden remorse; you’re operating on the vibes from social media and some pundits.

In truth, we really haven’t been through this already.

Correct, and replacing Biden is a huge risk. It could cost the election the same way John McCain took a gamble on Sarah Palin and lost.

We already have Newsom vs Biden and Newsom vs Trump polls. And the pundits talked endlessly in 2020 about the shortcomings of each candidate and why they’d struggle against Trump. We’ve been through this already.

If Biden steps down then of course whoever gets nominated will get a bump of course, but like we discussed collectively in 2020, they’d have their own separate hurdles. Bernie Sanders would energize many voters but his socialism talk would turn many voters off. Pete Buttigieg struggled to connect with voters of color. Warren had some political flubs and Trump launched many attacks on her etc. while there’s concern many Americans still won’t vote for a woman for president, and so on. The point I’m making is that you may find yourself in a situation in October where you WISH Biden was running again with his high poll numbers and solid national record that other candidates lack.

Show me one with higher poll numbers than Biden. When they were head to head in 2020 each polled lower than Biden against Trump.

I don’t want to defend Biden. He should go. He is a corrupt old man with a ton of baggage and his Palestine policy was atrocious. But I don’t see any of those people beating Trump based on the data we have.

We all know that Biden is a liability. BUT WHO WILL REPLACE HIM? I don’t like the man but who else in the party can take his role? Nobody credibly challenged him during the primary. Harris doesn’t poll as well as Biden and does worse. We’re stuck with him because nobody stepped up all year or last year, and everyone who wants him to step down thinks some magic TBD savior can show up out of nowhere and magically do better. Heck, Dean Phillips tried to run for president on the exact same issues and promised identical policies just in a younger person and he lost the race badly.

We’re stuck with Biden, and likely will lose.

The problem is that the debate doesn’t really change much… except for low information and undecided voters. They don’t know what Trump is spewing and whether it’s a lie or not. When he makes up wild claims that Biden is unanimously declared worst president in history, they don’t know that’s a lie, or that Trump is lying about capping the price of insulin or the existence of 9 month elective abortions, etc. Trump’s confident lies actually win over a lot of undecided people who don’t do any research into the topic.

No. Germany can recognize Jewish lives and the worldwide Jewish community without needing to play into the hands of a rightwing apartheid state and getting involved smack in the middle of their political dispute. This isn’t hard; it’s like being able to say Black Lives Matter without having to support and endorse the controversial policies of Louis Farrakhan.

That’s Uber propaganda. The system was created because prior to that cities had traffic jams with a ton of freelance cabs with no quality controls or regulation. The medallion system set a price floor and mandated inspections and insurance and background checks. Uber bypassed all of that for years and surprise; women were being assaulted by drivers with criminal history, passengers were injured from uninspected vehicles and couldn’t get remedied because the drivers were uninsured, and cities have worsening traffic jams because there was no limit on Uber drivers choking downtown streets.

The taxi industry evolved this way for good reasons. Uber was initially sold as good for immigrants and now immigrants protest how that company gets special treatment over every other cab company and hurts their bottom line.

The Israeli military is throwing out a ton of excuses rather than even give someone a mild punishment. They claim it was his idea, that they were transporting him to a hospital and no room in the car, etc. The video shows this is a lie.

Jon Stewart last week pointed out the irony of Fox News being unable to handle this data, despite pushing the “facts don’t care about your feelings” mantra for years.

And 15% of the world’s prisoners.

This is idiotic. Gandhi hated that Pakistan split off and said that he recognized their existence but would never recognize their “right” to exist.

That’s not even an international policy. Does Castile have a right to exist? Does Kashmir? Does Kurdistan? Why doesn’t Germany demand the same for others?

Democrats basically sell themselves on the idea that you should be afraid that the Republican might win, and vote for them to prevent that.

Pathetically, that’s what Republicans said for the 4 years Trump was in office. “Please overlook his faults, a Democrat would be worse!”

If I criticize the government of Venezuela it doesn’t mean I hate all Latinos.

Like I said above, pure sophistry on your part.

Israel is occupying Gaza currently, there are no civil services left. This is not in dispute and Israel admits this. International law says that the occupying power has responsibility to ensure the health and wellbeing of the civilian population. Israel is intentionally denying food from being delivered, they closed the borders for months until Biden pressured Israel to reopen them. That’s not Hamas’ fault. In fact, the Israeli government used intentional starvation as leverage to try and force Hamas to free hostages, but that’s also illegal and a war crime because you’re killing people unaffiliated with Hamas as a means to pressure them.

hundreds of trucks go through every day

It was zero for months, and even today it’s not at prewar levels and too low to prevent a famine. That’s Israel’s responsibility and no other, both under law and by the consequence of their actions. The IDF destroying desalination plants and farms means there’s no means of growing local food left, so even more food trucks are needed than prewar. 500 trucks a day was needed prewar and far more are needed now but the recent average has been 300 trucks a day. That’s because the IDF demands inspections of foreign goods and delays and rejects them arbitrarily. Again, the end responsibility is on Israel to feed the population since they now occupy the land and they aren’t doing it; not giving their own food or allowing enough foreign food.

Gaza has been blockaded since 2007 and that previous excuse of there being a Hamas government is no longer applicable; Hamas is no longer in control of 70% of the land in Gaza according to the Israeli government and therefore the responsibility to avoid famine is now on the occupying government. You may not like it but that’s the law including in Israel where they are bound by the Geneva Conventions.

There is no amount of aid that Israel is obligated to provide that is the cause of any hunger in Gaza

Completely wrong and ignorant of Israeli and international law as noted above.

I’m not going to waste any further time if you don’t know any of this. It’s settled international law, which is why it’s not just the UN, ICC, ICJ, many NGOs, and many governments including parts of the Israeli government that aren’t rightwing who all publicly admit this.

Talking about grieving for the Palestinian mothers is now a fireable offense, NYU?

Best as far as Trump is concerned for him.

They blocked all food shipments for months and only relented after the US and ICJ pressured them and even then it’s only a trickle and not enough to sustain life. The confirmed famine is happening BECAUSE Israel is intercepting and blocking food from entering despite the long line of literally hundreds of trucks at israel-controlled crossings. It’s pure sophistry to suggest otherwise.

He’s trying to set expectations for his followers.

Like how he’s insisting that Biden is some insane genius at debating, so when Trump is scored as losing debates by pundits it won’t sting as much.

That’s an impressive attempt at spinning.

This isn’t about Israel giving free food, but that Israel is intentionally BLOCKING all food shipments into the Gaza Strip AND blowing up water and food production facilities to intentionally create a famine. The Geneva Conventions require you to ensure the health and safety of civilians of land you control. Intentional and deliberate starvation of civilians is a WAR CRIME. I can’t spell it out any further for you.