We already know from TOS that Mutlitronic computers are able to develop sapience, with the M-5 computer being specifically designed to “think and reason” like a person, and built around Dr Daystrom’s neural engrams.
However, we also know from Voyager that the holomatrix of their Mk 1 EMH also incorporates Multitronic technology, and from DS9 that it’s also used in mind-reading devices.
Assuming that the EMH is designed to more or less be a standard hologram with some medical knowledge added in, it shouldn’t have come as a surprise that holograms were either sapient themselves, or were capable of developing sapience. It would only be a logical possibility if technology that allowed human-like thought and reasoning into a hologram.
If anything, it is more of a surprise that sapient holograms like the Doctor or Moriarty hadn’t happened earlier.
A calculator is not sentient, sapient or conscious, let alone have intention, morals or make decisions, simply because there could theoretically be a human doing these same calculations inside a calculator. Claiming that it is would be rightfully ridiculed.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. It’s not my job to concisely debunk the idea that a mathematical formula that predicts text based on probability pattern matching is actually sentient or sapient. It is not a black box! We know what it does! We wrote it!
The “we simply cannot know” agnosticism is just as ridiculous with LLMs as it is if you would claim that a “smart TV” might be sentient, or an NPC in a video game. It is not. And we know it is not. We know how it works. To claim that we don’t, and that it is, borders on a cult.