I certainly can’t see how Ukraine would not only kick out Russia but also turn things around so much that they gain ground. It’s like playing poker with one deck of cards and all the aces face up on the table and your opponent raises you in the hope that the final card will be another ace.
I expect the regime in Ukraine is going to fall sooner than later because the only thing that keeps it going is western support. That’s now starting to run into limits set by the manufacturing capacity in the west. This isn’t a question of money, but a question of logistics.
Can’t argue with that. I’m surprised it’s lasted this long tbh. God knows what the west promised/threatened when it made Zelensky pull out of peace talks. Unfortunately the war hawks still got their way.
I think the original idea in the west was that they were going to choke Russia off economically. This was supposed to be over in a couple of months, but then China and India didn’t play along. And the west clearly didn’t have a backup plan for when Russian economy didn’t implode. Now all the western leaders painted themselves into a corner politically by taking a maximalist position on the war. Admitting that Russia won will be career ending for a lot of these people. And I think this is the main reason for such vehement support. They’re sill hoping against hope that something will happen that will turn the tide in their favor because their backs are now against the wall.
They shouldn’t even gain ground, just drive out Russia. Attrition is currently in their favor and Russia is having to force their subjugated people to fight.
One option of course is a people’s revolution at Russia.
Zelensky tells CNN the war will not end so long as Crimea is occupied
Crimea was lost to Ukraine in 2014. Taking Crimea means gaining ground that Ukraine did not hold before the war. This goal will prolong, not shorten the tragedy.
Has Russia started a draft? What do you mean by ‘force their subjugated people to fight’?
If there were a revolution in Russia today, do you think the new government would end the war?
Crimea is Ukraine but currently occupied by the war started on 2014, as are the areas occupied by the later attacks.
Putin’s succession is a power grab. There are no guarantees that the next one would be any better but there’s a chance that continuing the war wouldn’t be in the next ones interest.
Crimea is Ukraine but currently occupied by the war started on 2014
That may be so but if Zelensky cannot maintain control over the land with which he started his premiership, how could he possibly hope to gain all that back as well as land that was lost before he came to power? If the Ukrainian military has only managed to maintain the parts of Ukraine that it currently holds after more than a year of war with soldiers, training, supplies, intelligence, and other support from NATO, what hope does it have of even regaining the land lost since 2021/2 by military force? I’m not talking about what might be ideal. I’m talking about what is feasible and realistic.
There are no guarantees that the next one would be any better but there’s a chance that continuing the war wouldn’t be in the next ones interest.
The answer to this riddle depends as much on NATO as it does on Russian politics. The only way that ending the war would be in the next leader’s interests is if they agree to sell off Russia to the US (again!—but they surely remember how that went the first time). Whatever the position was before the invasion, if Russia backs down now, NATO will be coming to slice Russia into pieces so that it’s ailing billionaire class has something profitable to invest in.
I certainly can’t see how Ukraine would not only kick out Russia but also turn things around so much that they gain ground. It’s like playing poker with one deck of cards and all the aces face up on the table and your opponent raises you in the hope that the final card will be another ace.
I expect the regime in Ukraine is going to fall sooner than later because the only thing that keeps it going is western support. That’s now starting to run into limits set by the manufacturing capacity in the west. This isn’t a question of money, but a question of logistics.
Can’t argue with that. I’m surprised it’s lasted this long tbh. God knows what the west promised/threatened when it made Zelensky pull out of peace talks. Unfortunately the war hawks still got their way.
I think the original idea in the west was that they were going to choke Russia off economically. This was supposed to be over in a couple of months, but then China and India didn’t play along. And the west clearly didn’t have a backup plan for when Russian economy didn’t implode. Now all the western leaders painted themselves into a corner politically by taking a maximalist position on the war. Admitting that Russia won will be career ending for a lot of these people. And I think this is the main reason for such vehement support. They’re sill hoping against hope that something will happen that will turn the tide in their favor because their backs are now against the wall.
They shouldn’t even gain ground, just drive out Russia. Attrition is currently in their favor and Russia is having to force their subjugated people to fight.
One option of course is a people’s revolution at Russia.
The OP screenshot reads:
Crimea was lost to Ukraine in 2014. Taking Crimea means gaining ground that Ukraine did not hold before the war. This goal will prolong, not shorten the tragedy.
Has Russia started a draft? What do you mean by ‘force their subjugated people to fight’?
If there were a revolution in Russia today, do you think the new government would end the war?
Crimea is Ukraine but currently occupied by the war started on 2014, as are the areas occupied by the later attacks.
Putin’s succession is a power grab. There are no guarantees that the next one would be any better but there’s a chance that continuing the war wouldn’t be in the next ones interest.
That may be so but if Zelensky cannot maintain control over the land with which he started his premiership, how could he possibly hope to gain all that back as well as land that was lost before he came to power? If the Ukrainian military has only managed to maintain the parts of Ukraine that it currently holds after more than a year of war with soldiers, training, supplies, intelligence, and other support from NATO, what hope does it have of even regaining the land lost since 2021/2 by military force? I’m not talking about what might be ideal. I’m talking about what is feasible and realistic.
The answer to this riddle depends as much on NATO as it does on Russian politics. The only way that ending the war would be in the next leader’s interests is if they agree to sell off Russia to the US (again!—but they surely remember how that went the first time). Whatever the position was before the invasion, if Russia backs down now, NATO will be coming to slice Russia into pieces so that it’s ailing billionaire class has something profitable to invest in.