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Cake day: February 15th, 2025

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  • If a disease with anything close to a 50% case fatality rate spreads far and wide, it’ll collapse human civilization. There won’t be anyone to collect the debt afterward. Those who survive would have to rebuild society from the ground up.

    If it doesn’t spread far and wide and it’s only a small number of people who end in ICU, yeah they’ll need to hire a bankrupcty lawyer once they recover.


  • It’s a bit complicated. That survival rate primarily includes people who become severely ill and seek medical attention. Since it’s the most severe cases, the case fatality rate (CFR) will appear higher.

    HOWEVER, what also needs to be emphasized is that a disease with like a 10% CFR is probably a civilization (as we know it) ending disease. I believe covid 19 was between like 1-2% and we saw how it nearly broke our health care system, and that was with people more competent than RFK in charge.

    If a disease emerges that spreads as easily as COVID did and with a CFR rate 3 to 4X as worse, it’d obliterate the health care system very, very quickly. Then people are going to start dying en masse from preventable diseases, like common infections, moderate injuries (e.g. broken leg) etc.

    If a disease emerges that spreads as fast and far as COVID and has a 50% CFR, yeah that’d collapse most societies completely. Maybe some societies that can truly lock down and enforce social distancing, like China, could survive long enough for a vaccine or other solution to become available.



  • “Honestly, I’ve kind of assumed that crime is a made up American thing to put minorities in jail.”

    It’s definitely not made up, although it may be exaggerated and positioned to drive fear.

    I’ve been to a couple dozen countries at this point, primarily but not exclusively in low and medium low income countries.

    Based on my experience (which is, in sum total, still pretty limited), organized crime groups will often try to avoid stirring up trouble with tourists and expats as incidents can generate too much heat and could hurt too many wallets.

    I also got the impression that organized crime groups in most countries typically try to avoid stirring up too much stuff with locals as that too can draw heat. This is assuming that the locals likewise try to avoid stirring things up with organized crime members.

    People living in Mexico may in many cases may be more exposed. Then you’ve got failed and near failed states like the DRC where things are really, really dire.

    There often are areas that are best to avoid and if you do go there, you’ll want to keep a low profile. This is true in the USA, parts of Europe, and many low and medium low income countries. I’ve ended up in some pretty shady areas through life but never had anything happen. That said, the risks are heightened.

    There are also safe low and middle income countries that are, at least with violent crime, much safer than the USA and other high income countries. Examples: Malaysia (upper middle income), Vietnam, Costa Rica.


  • lol. I assure you, the one who’s tone deaf here is absolutely you.

    Buying a used car comes with various risks and it’s easy to end up with a bad deal. If you know what you’re doing and you have a bit of luck you can find good deals. But that’s not everyone, many people are rightly afraid they could get ripped off or just suffer some bad luck and not have a warranty to bail you out.

    And there are plenty of middle and upper middle class people on tight budgets not due to luxury.

    Do you realize how many people are bankrupted by medical costs?

    Do you realize people get laid off, suffer debilitating injuries, or otherwise take a big hit to their income and finances through little to no fault of their own?

    If you were making $125,000 a year five years ago, buying a Model E could make financial sense (save on gas, once solid resale value, longevity, etc.)

    Then a few years you lose your job. Selling your tesla at a steep lose in that situation could be a really bad move depending on your position (especially if the care is paid for.)

    The amount of examples here is endless.









  • From CNN:

    " The move to detain the mayor of Turkey’s largest city, a key political battleground, comes after Istanbul University said on Tuesday it had annulled Imamoglu’s degree over irregularities, dealing a blow to the opposition and dashing the mayor’s presidential ambitions.

    Without a university degree, Imamoglu of the main opposition CHP, would be disqualified from running for president.

    Imamoglu said the university’s decision was illegal and outside its jurisdiction, and that he would launch a legal challenge “The decision of the Istanbul University Board of Directors is UNLAWFUL” he said. “The days when those who made this decision will be held accountable before history and justice are near.”

    ---- Yeah Erdogan isn’t even pretending any more. Clearly just a move to take out the opposition.