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Cake day: June 21st, 2023

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  • SCOTUS can move quickly if they want to. Bush v Gore was decided by the Florida Supreme Court on December 8. SCOTUS held oral arguments on December 11, and issued their ruling on December 12.

    That was also a much less anticipated issue. The court had no way of knowing ahead of time that the outcome of the presidential election would depend on their interpratatation of recount law.

    In this case, we have known for years that Trump was the presumptive nominee; and that his eligibility was going to be challenged under the 14th amendment. While the precise procedural path that question took to get to them could not have been predicted, there is no way that they have not already given thought to the substance of the 14th amendment challenge. 2 weeks is plenty of time for them to issue a ruling.








  • Neutral and Israel alligned countries have been calling for a humanatarian pause on purely humanitarian grounds. Even if you don’t care about the hostages, that Hamas was willing to offer them means that they had an interest in such a pause as well; making Israel the only obstacle to it happening. That is to say, the severity of the humanitarian disaster in Gaza is squarly on Israel’s shoulders. The most charitable reading of the situation is that they have determined that the tactical advantage of blocking a humanitarian pause outways the civilian lives they put at risk by doing so.






  • US Jews aren’t that closely alligned to Israel; particularly if you are talking about the current Israeli leadership (which a significant portion of Israelis also aren’t alligned with). Further, the preferences of US Jews is pretty corralated to their political party; where Jewish Republicans are far more pro Israel than Jewish democrats.

    https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/05/21/u-s-jews-have-widely-differing-views-on-israel/

    The above survey is old, but I don’t think the story has fundamentally changed.

    Across all US Jews (as of the time the survey was conducted)

    40% rate Netenyahus leadership as good or excellent (25% of Democratic Jews, 80% of Republican Jews)

    34% Strongly oppose the BDS (anti Israel Boycott, Divest, Sanctions) movement. (28% Democratic Jews, 54% Republican Jews)

    33% Thought that Israel was making a sincere effort to peace. (20% Democratic Jews, 66% Republican Jews)

    32% Thought that God gave Israel to the Jews. (22% Democratic Jews, 60% Republican Jews).

    When people talk about the “Jewish” position for Israel in thr context of US politics, they are really talking about the Republican position.