• 16 Posts
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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • Would they?

    SNPs manifesto included it as a key point. So actual coalition government. Well look at how lib dems got hit over student fees. SNP voters would feel the same having voted for an independence party.

    Hence why labour have faced the question at all past elections where a win os less probable amd denied they would form such a coalition.

    But as said. A confodence amd supply agreement where snp agree to non confidence votes. Is probable on such situs.





  • Depends on how they interpret the vote.

    The right wing arseholes will claim that is needed. But there will be some understanding that many reform voters knew they could not win in thier seat. But would punish Tories for corruption and other failures. Add the expected landslide in polling. Many tory voters who dislike labour knew voting reform would not change the overall winner but would punish Tory corruption.

    There will def be a % of Tory leadership making that argument. And pushing for a more centre right policies with huge work to improve the image of corruption. Somehow.

    I can see the party being way more split before it chooses a direction.


  • An independent (SNP) and unionist (Labour) party would be hard-pressed to form a government.

    But again the whole idea of the votes being identicle under a vastyyly different system

    Honestly the big question would be how government is formed. With seat numbers matching % of vote. under our current system. Labour could run a weak gov by depending on greens snp and others never supporting a tor ref vonc.

    But with centre right lab, it is likely only ld and lab would be garmented to support most policy votes. Others, often refusing because it’s not left enough and not right enough at the same time.

    Unfortunately, while the right has clasped over this election. The right has a long history of unity to fight the left.

    the left much the opposite in fighting the right.



  • In the parliament, yes. But there is no such concept in a seat. There majority can only be the dictionary def. As 50% makes no difference to the seats’ winner under fptp. Only who has the most votes.

    And the dictionary def has no relation to 50%. Because it is an English term, not as political one. Heck, even in parliament, it’s a more media term to help explain who has the ability to control votes.


  • Given, many systems require more than just marking one box. While, even those that do not, would drastically change how people choose their vote.

    I am unsure any such site can give a realistic result from available data?

    Edit:

    If we just assume proportional based on % of vote yesterday.

    Tor 22.9% Lab 35.2% LDe 11.3% Ref 14.5% SNP 2.5% Oth 13.6%

    It is bloody hard to see how either party could form a viable 50% Lab LD SNP and a few independents would take it over 50. But honestly, it is hard to imagine that working with the politicians voted yesterday. Tory Ref would need all independents. So less likely to work.

    But as I said. Voters would go to the polls with very different ideas about how to vote.


  • Majority just means a larger number. The word has nothing to do with above 50%.

    It is just used so in parliament because all non government seats can vote against the government, so to have the largest voting block you must have more then any other group.

    As that is not the case in a constituency election, 1 vote over each other party is a referred to as a majority.




  • Only one opposed to the trend. So long while before we can be sure.

    But if it continures. Lab holds having huge reform vote. But Tory loss them being 3rd. It would support most Tories, only voting reform when they know Tories won’t win. But hesitating when a reform win is possible. (edit: possible to prevent what they see as a more sane party)

    Be interesting to see if that continues.


  • Not really a bad thing. Reform plus the Lib Dems attacking fptp. Means both right and right of centre. (Pretty much the only views available under fptp ). Will have strong options for voters to switch vote and split the fptp possibility of a win for them. This may end up the final option that forces PR of some form.

    Honestly, as close as both sides are. It’s the first time both the government and the opposition has had parties truly risking a future split in the vote.



  • How much money we have or don’t have is not important.

    What matters is how much money voters have been convinced we have. The centre and right have spent decades convincing voters taxing the rich doesn’t work.

    Little hope of changing their minds in the 6 weeks of an election campaign. People need to be putting the work in now for 10 years or so in the future. Forcing the centre and right to prove their arguments against progressive taxation.




  • The positive news. Voting reform is very unlikely to win more than 7 seats. But will split the right wing vote from Tories. Letting Lib Dems or even Labour win seats from the Tories.

    They are where fptp works for the left for a change.

    While Id def prefer a situation where a seat cannot be taken, with >60% wanting any other MP. Here it helps. While maybe convincing more voters, FPTP is shit.