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Cake day: July 2nd, 2023

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  • There’s a massive gulf between what progressives say and do and what the alt-right online influencers claim they do. Perhaps the reason you haven’t heard of anything productive progressives have done is that you get all your news from people who do not want them to appear reasonable and so leave out anything reasonable that they do. These days woke is a word used only by those trying to denigrate the progressive left. Because Woke is a strawman. An empty vessel for you to fill with hate. A totem to represent all the ways in which society is changing that you don’t like.

    I can think of nothing less productive than putting down a hollow strawman.


  • This isn’t a small problem they can pay a fine and ignore it. Legally it’s possible they might find some way to wriggle out of responsibility. But they’re still screwed. It’s not just the law they need to worry about they need to worry about. In this case, since Elon has a weird cult of personality with his investors he might be fine on that front. Usually when this kind of thing is revealed about a company the shareholders dump and run but that is not going to happen here I think. What is going to murder Tesla is loans.

    A floundering company with a good rep can survive quite a while on loans. Many big finance companies give great interest rates to big companies they think they can do large-scale business with in the future. So a company that can convince people they’re on track for great profits can often get fantastic terms. I guarantee you that has stopped. No credible finance company will likely touch Tesla now. None of the numbers they give can be trusted. So Tesla’s ability to gain new loans has just evapourated. Since they are committing accounting fraud they are not selling as much as they claim and therefore almost certainly need new loans just to keep going.



  • This question right here perfectly encapsulates everything wrong with LLMs right now. They could be good tools but the people pushing them have no idea what they even are. LLMs do not make decisions. All the decisions an LLM appears to make were made in the dataset. All those things that an LLM does that make it seem intelligent were done or said by a human somewhere on the internet. It is a statistical model that determines what output is mostly likely to come next. That is it. It is nothing else. It is not smart. It does not and cannot make decisions. It is an algorithm that searches a dataset and when it can’t find something it’ll provide convincing-looking gibberish instead.

    Listen think of it like this; a man decides to take exams to become a doctor in France, but for some reason he doesn’t learn either french or medicine. No, no instead he studies every former exam and all the answers to them. He gets very good at regurgitating those answers so much so that he can even pass the exam. But at no point does he understand what any of it means and when asked new and novel questions he provides utter nonsense answers. No matter how good he gets at memorising those answers he will never get any better at medicine. LLMs are as likely to gain sentience as my excel spreadsheets are.


  • That all depends on where the data set comes from. The code you’ll get out of an LLM is the average code of the data set. If it’s scraped from the internet (which is very likely) the code you’ll get will be an amalgam of concise examples from one website, incorrect examples from another, bits from blogs with all the typos and all the gunk and garbage that’s out there.

    Getting LLM code to work well takes an understanding of what the code it gives you actually does and why it’s bad. It will always be bad because it cannot be better than the dataset and in order for a dataset to be big enough to train an LLM it’ll have to have everything they can get including all the trash. But it can be good for providing you a framework to start with. It is however never going to replace actual programming and understanding of programming. The talk of LLMs completely replacing programers is mostly coming from people who do not understand coding or LLMs at all.



  • The thing is as you get older the more genetic damage you receive. It builds up over time and you do pass on that damage to your kids. So what effect does that have? Nothing. Since damaged genes are weaker than intact genes the kid’s expressed genes will be the sum of the healthy genetics they received from both parents. And it is very unlikely that the genetic damage of both parents matches unless they’re related. The age of a parent only matters if you are expecting their kids and grandkids to be having children with each other.



  • Allow me to address a question the pro-Russian guy keeps dodging; Wagner is no longer participating in the Ukraine war. I don’t know the full details but after their mutiny, they were sent back to Africa and other foreign countries far from Russia and have been working to shore up Russian-friendly dictatorships and regimes. But they have been kept well away from Ukraine and Russia ever since. Part of what they’ve been doing is selling and advertising their services as consultants and support to keep people in power. This helps Russia build influence which is something it desperately needs right now. Wagner being in Venezuela would not be strange. It would mean the guy who is yelling about the CIA trying to overthrow him has accepted Russian help. In fact considering how active Wagner has been in involving themselves anywhere where they can get a foothold it’d be weird if Wagner weren’t in Venezuela.


  • Yes going outside in the first week is a very bad idea. However not because the radiation outside will instantly drop you. Much of the radiation will be coming from radioactive dust, known as fallout that’ll be comprised of all kinds of isotopes. The isotopes that decay quickly release a lot of radiation over a short period and if you go outside you will come back covered in them. This will bring radiation into wherever you are using as your shelter. This would not just harm the person who went outside but everyone else sheltering with them. So do not go outside for any reason. You can make do without power for a while.

    On a related note; keep water and food covered. Skin is a surprisingly good defense against radiation but breathing in this dust or letting it get into the food you eat or the water you drink is very dangerous. After a week has passed you should for your own safety keep the time spent outside your shelter as low as possible. Short trips outside will become safer as time goes on but activities that kick up dust will still be dangerous for a long time.



  • I have seen so many talks by and interviews with people who claim to have deconverted from evolution. They all claim pretty similar stuff. Sometimes eeriely similar. Often they talk about being angry. Then they’ll go on to claim that they directed that anger at god, that that was why they bought into the ‘lie’ of evolution and that all atheiests are just like they were, angry at god. It’s funny how closely what they talk about resembles the strawman young earth creationists believe about atheiests and secularists and all those things those people wish where true about us.

    I find this very strange because with such large numbers involved on both sides there should , purely statisticly speaking, be a reasonably decent pool of converts each way just down to chance and circumstance. Yet they keep resorting to pushing people who don’t remotely understand the mindset of the groups they claimed they once were part of. Despite that they keep troting them out like they’re a prized bull.

    I have seen incel channels full of interviews with random people on the street where they were pushing a narrative of rampent misandry. Interview after interview of women chippily admiting to very hateful stuff about men on camera without an ounce of shame. But of course they wouldn’t have shame they were answering very carefully crafted hypotheticals that they thought were asked in good faith. A few decptive edits to remove their reasonable response’s context and all of a sudden the incels have justification for their anger. The interviews get shared around and around by people who have already decided where they stand but want vindication for their bigotry. ‘Look how common that hate for men is’ they cry, clearly showing how rarely they talk to other people.

    I have listened to talks by people who have claimed to have seen the edge of the world or have claimed to have the alien corpses kept at Roswell. I have read statements by someone claiming that they went to a cancer ward, convinced the doctors to inject all the patients with their essential oils which cured everyone of their cancer. I have listened to interviews with anti vaxers claiming to have personally seen wards full of ‘vaccine causalties’ that’s being covered up somehow.

    Have some people switched from accepting evolution to young earth creationism? It has to have happened at some point. Are their some misandrists out there? There has to be. Are they anywhere near as prevelant as either of those two groups pretend? Absolutely not. They have a vested interest in pushing the idea that both those things are far more common than they are. Interviews are just ancedotes and no matter how many ancedotes you horde they will never coalesce into evidence.

    Do some transgender people regret transitioning? It has to have happened at least once just based off numbers alone Are there a lot? No there aren’t. To an actually surprising degree. But that surprising degree shouldn’t actually be that surprsining; You see before all the irreversible medical procedures there is a bunch of indepth psychological evaluations aimed at filtering out people who would regret it later. We’ve actually gotten pretty good at that. Not that it’s that hard there tends to be some strong and obvious indicators. So I will pose a hypothetical of my own; Even if there was a lot of regretful trangender folk is the answer to ban trans health care altogether or invest in better evaluations and better understanding of it?



  • It is counterintuitive but it does make sense. You see the initial plan the Nazis used to try to get rid of the Jews was to expel them from Germany. They had no problem if the Jews all grouped together and settled their own country so long as it was somewhere else. Far away from them. (And when they didn’t leave they made conditions horrible for them). That’s why antisemites love Zionism; it’s a way to get rid of the Jewish population in their country without dirtying their hands with ethnic cleansing. Which is how we get to conspiracy nutjobs who rant about Jewish space lasers setting forest fires in the US for some reason, turning around and enthusiastically supporting Israel and defence aid for Israel.


  • Typically the major threats from canniblism are bacteria, viruses, fungus, parasites and prions. The bacteria, viruses, fungus and parasites shouldn’t exist under properly maintained lab conditions. But prions are just misfolded proteins. They happen rarely and typically they are quarantined in the cell they were produced in. A number of things have to go very, very wrong for them to get out into your body from your own cells. However, eating and digesting cells can let out the prions they contain. Once they get out they’ll start triggering other proteins to misfold but only if the right materials are present and if the prion came from human tissue you can be sure they are.

    The human immune system is incredible, it has impressive countermeasures for almost anything you could think of. Heck it’ll even attack solid objects that get stuck inside you. If you get shot by a bullet and don’t get it removed (not recommended) your body will layer by layer eat that bullet. Slowly dissolving it and passing it into your blood so your kidneys can filter it and you can piss out that bullet over the course of decades. (Though having a bunch more metal in your blood causes its own problems). Your body has a response to just about everything including cancer which to get anywhere has to have some mutations to deceive your immune system.

    Your body has no answer to prions whatsoever. Your body puts up no fight. If you are infected by a prion disease you are going to die. There is no vaccine, no cure, no treatment.

    Once symptoms appear you’ll have at most a few years if your very lucky but more likely a few months. Most prion diseases attack the brain. (side note; don’t eat the brains of any animal regardless of circumstances)

    Will perfectly sterile lab conditions eliminate prions as a concern? No If anything it might be possible that growing the meat artificially might result in more misfolded proteins. I’d still happily eat lab-grown animal meat. But lab-grown human meat? No thank you


  • Ah, the good ole genocide apologist. One missile attack that may or may not be attributable to Hamas invalidates all other evidence of IDF wrongdoing. Look that missile attack could have been Hamas but after the media firestorm died down something funny happened; the IDF realised they could get away with airstriking hospitals. Ever since all Gazan hospitals were beset with airstrikes and raids. Some raids even involved IDF soldiers dressed as medical personnel arriving in medical vehicles. (They only found two militants in that raid btw, both were wounded and being treated) But IDF hitting hospitals was old news and muddied waters, most of the news wasn’t interested in it anymore. “Ah but it was Hamas doing that” cries the apologists never explaining why Hamas suddenly is able to use jets or why they aren’t using the constant barrage of munitions directed at hospitals and residential areas to attack Israel instead.

    After a while, there was that IDF airstrike on an aid convoy. The spacing of the hits meant it was clearly targeted and hamas doesn’t have anywhere near the capability and never has. The IDF blamed a few scapegoats said how it was a terrible mistake. But after the media firestorm died down something funny happened the IDF realised they could get away with air striking aid convoys. There’s been at least 8 more convoys hit from airstrikes and countless direct attacks from Israeli settlers (who are armed and equipped by the Israeli government) on aid convoys since.

    Then there’s the mass graves. Multiple mass graves have been found outside hospitals that had been occupied by the IDF after the IDF withdrew. The occupants of these mass graves tended to be in restraints, tended to be women, old folk or had some serious wound. Some have been identified as doctors who worked in the hospitals, others were found wearing hospital gowns with IV tubes still in their arms. Many had signs of recent torture. Some appear to have been buried alive. These hospitals were operating (even under fire) right up until the IDF seized the building.

    But it’s all a Hamas smokescreen isn’t it? It couldn’t be that the hatred the Israeli government has repeatedly expressed towards Palestine and it’s people is real could it? It couldn’t be that the side you picked to support, the one that frequently refers to Palestines as animals, are willing to commit atrocities? It couldn’t be since the other side is Hamas a genuinely vile organisation that murders their political opposition, steals aid and launches attacks aimed at murdering civilians. Your side must be the good guys. Since your side is the good guys all the stuff about them doing horrible things must be fake. Right?

    I do not support Hamas, I am very tired of having to make that clear. I am very much not on their side. I despise them. They launched the October attack because Iran and Israel had started showing signs of thawing relations and they wanted to nip that in the bud (which worked). They wanted the retaliation they expected. They wanted Israel to make the Palestinians suffer more. It boosts their support when that happens. It’s been the same grotesque song and dance for decades. I would love to see Hamas rounded up and tried for their many crimes. They benefit too much from the conflict for there to be peace with them in charge. But the same could be said for the current Israeli government which have helped prop up Hamas because Hamas reduces Palestine’s international legitimacy, makes a two state solution (which they are very much against) basically impossible and provides a convenient bogeyman to keep them in power. All the while it’s the Palestinian civilians who suffer and die.