Ok so here’s the rules
- I just bet on red every time
- I start with 1 dollar
- every time I lose, I triple my previous bet
- every time I win I restart
I’m going to simulate 10 games
- Game 1 - Bet $1 Lose
- Game 2 - Bet $3 Lose
- Game 3 - Bet $9 Win $18
- Game 4 - Bet $1 Lose
- Game 5 - Bet $3 Lose
- Game 6 - Bet $9 Win $18
- Game 7 - Bet $1 Lose
- Game 8 - Bet $3 Lose
- Game 9 - Bet $9 Lose
- Game 10 - Bet $18 Win $36
In this simulation I’m losing at a rate of 70%. In reality the lose rate is closer to 52%. I put in $54 but I’m walking away with $72, basically leaving the building with $18.
Another example. Let’s pretend I walk in with $100,000 to bet with. I lose my first 10 games and win the 11th.
- 1 lose
- 3 lose
- 9 lose
- 27 lose
- 81 lose
- 243 lose
- 729 lose
- 2187 lose
- 6561 lose
- 19683 lose
- 59049 win $118098
$88573 spent out of pocket, $118098 won
Walk out with roughly $29525.
I get most casinos won’t let you be that high but it’s a pretty extreme example anyway, the likelyhood of losing 10/11 games on 48% odds is really unlikely.
So help me out here, what am I missing?
This is the Martingale system, it will 100% work if you have infinite money and can bet infinite amounts.
It won’t work on any table that has a 0 and/or 00. The reason those green numbers exist is to give the house an edge over high rollers who can sustain a martingale strategy.
Another way of thinking about it is betting your entire bankroll for 99.9…% certainty that you will win $1.
Say you go into the casino with $1000.
Bet:
$1 lose. $3 lose. $9 lose. $27 lose. $81 lose. $243 lose. $729 oh wait you can't bet that much, you only have $457 left. Dang, do you bet $457 or find another $272? Bet $457 and you win $914! Congrats you're now only down $86! Or maybe you lost and are down $1000. Or maybe you scrounged up $272 so you could keep playing Bet 729 and lose. Now you're down $1272. Or Bet 729 and you win 1458. Pay back the $272 you borrowed from your buddy, you're still up $186. You just bet $729 dollars for a %50 chance of winning $186.
But what are the chances of getting 6 or 7 losses in a row? 1 in 64, or 128 respectively, actually worse because roulette wheels aren’t 50/50, they’re 18/19 (18 wins and 19 losses in 37 plays on average) or worse. So losing 6 times in a row will happen 1 in 54 plays, 7 losses is 1 in 106.
Google says roulette wheels spin 55 times per hour so with your strategy you will lose your bank roll in about one hour assuming your starting bet is 0.1% of your bank roll.
To make things worse, Vegas now have triple 0 roulette tables. Three zeros in a row. In the same place. Do not play Roulette if you want to win. The only bet in a casino isn’t to the casinos favor is on Craps and it’s called ODDS. But to get to able to play it you have to win against 1.41% house edge first. And it is capped about 10x or 5x of original bet.
If you want to have the best odds against a casino that is hard work and not solid strategy. Counting cards can make money but honestly the amount of work it requires - you are better on the stock market or even in crypto.
Do not gamble against the casino.
The only reason to gambe is to have fun and safe risk with money you decided to spend and to never see again.
Haven’t auto shufflers killed counting cards now anyway?
The House will use multiple decks, I think up to 8 but I haven’t gambled for a few years, + the auto shuffler.
They’ll usually deal about 1 decks worth of cards and then pass all cards through the shuffler.
This means that you have to count 8 decks worth of cards, and they reset that before you can really get much of an advantage.