Bill Gates feels Generative AI has plateaued, says GPT-5 will not be any better::The billionaire philanthropist in an interview with German newspaper Handelsblatt, shared his thoughts on Artificial general intelligence, climate change, and the scope of AI in the future.
I’m not sure I’d say it’s plateaued today but I definitely think machine learning is going to hit a wall soon. Some tech keeps improving until physical limits stop progress but I see generative AI as being more like self-driving cars where the “easy” parts end up solved but the last 10% is insanely hard.
There’s also the economic reality of scaling. Maybe the “hard” problems could, in theory, be easily solved with enough compute power. We’ll eventually solve those problems but it’s going to be on Nvidia’s timeline, not OpenAI’s.
Generative ai is a bit different from self driving cars in the sense that they’re tolerant to failures. This may give more room for improvements when compared to other applications.
Yeah, AI’s biggest weakness right now is that it just doesn’t work sometimes. It’s very unreliable, but whether or not it’s too unreliable depends on what exactly you need it for. The scope of LLMs is limited by this unreliability, but generative AI is wonderful at doing things that either don’t need to be perfect all the time or can simply be redone if there’s a mistake. That’s why it’s putting artists out of work, but not automating the boring, really important stuff yet.
Yes, especially when you consider that the human brain runs on 15W of power!