Snapshot of Eurozone inflation falls to 5.5% in sharp contrast to UK. Economists put reason for divergence down to Brexit and Britain’s energy price guarantee.

  • emerty@feddit.uk
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    1 year ago

    Lol, no they’re not. Productivity is not GDP…

    And the 4% is over 15 years and is a result of loss of comparative advantage.

    If you have to compound an effect over 15 years to get 4%, the effect is fuck all.

    • G4Z@feddit.uk
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      1 year ago

      So why do Bloomberg put it at 100bn based on that 4% figure?

      If you have to compound an effect over 15 years to get 4%, the effect is fuck all.

      Yeah, sounds unlikely doesn’t it?

      Let me ask you, what do you think it’s cost the UK per year in billion pounds?

      • emerty@feddit.uk
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        1 year ago

        Yeah, sounds unlikely doesn’t it?

        But that’s what the forecast says. 4% of productivity lost over the long term of 15 years due to loss of comparative advantage

        https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis

        But the forecast is for the cost, no benefit is included.

        The loss of comparative advantage is replaced, I’d argue, with competitive advantage which has a much stronger effect. The UK is no longer bound by the anti science regulations on genetic engineering and the new overly restrictive proposed regulations on AI

        GDP per capita is a ratio of GDP / population, so if you do more with fewer people, by using automation, robots and AI, your GDP per capita will grow…

        The 4% figure over 15 years is a difference of 0.29% to 0.27% productivity growth. Government policy has at least that 0.02% effect

        I predict a Starmer govt will be able to introduce policy that will offset the productivity loss just by investing in renewable energy, let alone any research universities’ innovations.