- cross-posted to:
- europe@lemmy.ml
- cross-posted to:
- europe@lemmy.ml
In thinktank’s survey of 15 European countries, few respondents believe Ukraine can secure an outright victory
In thinktank’s survey of 15 European countries, few respondents believe Ukraine can secure an outright victory
Ohhhhh a poll! Oh man, well. Done deal then. Innit.
deleted by creator
Jesus Christ they got 20,000 people to answer poll questions in two weeks?
. . . What was the methodology? Was it, like, at a football match everybody who agrees . . raise your hand? Was it “like if you agree” on Telegram? Agggh. Okay I’ll go look.
Okay here’s the Methodology section:
Which - says who did it, but except for “online” or in the case of Ukraine “random telephone numbers”, it doesn’t describe the Method of the . . y’know, the Ology. So. “online”. Like, click on an Ad at stormfront.com, or -?
Anyway here’s the numbers:
Thanks for posting the table, much more informative than the article.
IDK if I have a browser problem? But that table was not visible to me reading the article.
That was from the source pdf linked in the article, fwiw. It also didn’t have any methodology notes, it was just results.
There’s a lot of info and graphs, but it’s interesting:
Yeah, it’s just that polls are notorious for saying something grand, and then when you dig into it it’s always some bizarre, unbelievable process with a minuscule percentage of the population.
As we see, the article doesn’t say how they did it.
If we broadly take the population of Europe and Ukraine to be 788 million people total, this survey of 20,000 people would be 0.002% of the population.
I don’t think that’s statistically significant. By, well, a lot.
But it is an interesting headline.
It is, population size has essentially no effect on statistical significance of a sample (other than amplifying it as you start to sample most of the population). 20,000 people is massive and will give you sub 1% confidence ranges. The difficulty is ensuring you have a representative sample (no one does) and correcting for the biases you do have in your sample.
Do you really think the huge polling industry is unaware of basic statistics and your dividing the sample size by the population would come as a revaltion to them?
I think the huge polling industry is based on, and a provider of, multiple lies.
I think the average person, who will incorporate polling headlines into their worldview, is unaware of the enormous differences.
Do those lies include tricking professional mathematicians into thinking their lies are actually formally proved mathematics?
No. The math is sound. The premise is flawed.