At this moment, I expect that ‘the average Joe’ is still on Reddit. The current growth of the user base will be mostly technical users, that aren’t to afraid to try things and fail miserably.

By the time the Reddit population is fed up with all the ads, lack of content,… they’ll move over and (hopefully) find a few very stable and established instances. I even guess we’ll have a few instances that have almost no local communities, but are mainly used to jump off to other communities. But for now, I guess that the average technical know how in the community is a tad higher then ‘average Joe’, or at least they won’t be afraid to make a big mess and learn from that.