Who wants to place a bet if Israel is going to give a shit?
My vote is on “keep going and keep denying”.
ICJ orders Israel to take measures to prevent and punish direct incitement of genocide
ICJ ruling does not explicitly order a ceasefire
Israel’s security minister responds to ICJ ruling by tweeting ‘Hague Shmague’
Israel will continue to defend itself while adhering to international law, says Netanyahu
Gentlemen don’t bet on a sure thing.
I know Biden gets a lot of shit for it, but I suspect this is also one of the reasons why the Biden administration has delayed criticising Netenyahu and been very cautious in doing so.
They know Netenyahu would ignore them anyway, that it would damage their alliance with Israel, and have probably come to the conclusion that being too strong wouldn’t help remove him from power.
Articles like this seem to back up my theory:
After cautious criticism by Biden, Netanyahu rallies Israel’s right wing
Not that I agree with the logic, but that might partly explain it.
Then Biden is ignoring that this might cost him the reelection that’s coming up. Left-leaning people even in the US aren’t that keen on genocide, and a lot of them might just elect to stay at home rather than voting for an enabler.
All presidents are pro-israel nothing will change if he loses
People aren’t rational.
The vast majority of American voters support Israel in this war and do not consider what Israel is doing a genocide (55ff.):
https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/HHP_Jan24_KeyResults.pdf
I think you fell into the common trap of believing that your particular filter bubble is representative of the general consensus.
Over 1/3 of voters say it’s genocide. Which party do you think they will skew towards? Given that the last election was pretty close it doesn’t look great.
Go back a few pages and see that only 2% of voters consider Israel the most important issue. Next to nobody is going to base their voting decision on Biden’s Israel policy.
I bet there are enough of us that’s are against genocide that we can make him fail the reelection
And then you get Trump. Ever looked up his Israel policy? Got any other brilliant ideas?
Maybe just do the right thing. Clinton lost because of 80,000 votes from 3 states. You don’t think that can happen again because of a genocide ?
No one is forcing Biden to export weapons to Israel, knowing full well they are being used to commit war crimes.
Live thread of the court ruling here:
Full text of the order. Juicy bits start at paragraph 75, page 24 thereabouts (goddammit pdf page numbering).
In particular, this:
The Court further considers that Israel must take immediate and effective measures to enable the provision of urgently needed basic services and humanitarian assistance to address the adverse conditions of life faced by Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
“Immediate and effective” is very clear language, and can be easily assessed. If Israel doesn’t do that it opens the doors wide open to actually be found guilty of genocide, no wiggling “but we didn’t mean to”, no nothing. A legal tripwire if I’ve ever seen one.
Also make note of the one judge who voted against everything, including ordering that humanitarian aid be provided. No, it’s not the Israeli one.
I also noticed that judge Sebutinde voted against everything. I wonder why? Why would anyone vote against an order to provide humanitarian aid?
Edit: removed a word
She voted against a resolution wherein even the Israeli judge voted yes.
In other words, continue military complain, just give some food.
Well they also say that Israel should make sure that the IDF, or subsets thereof, aren’t committing genocide.
Ordering to stop a military campaign as such is out of the jurisdiction of the ICJ AFAIU: Israel does have the right to defend itself against Hamas under international law, arguably has the duty to do so, it’s the above and beyond that’s the issue, what the ICJ can actually rule on.
Stopping the IDF would be a thing for the security council, “ok you’re making a mess of things, we’ll take over, guaranteeing your security from Hamas while not committing genocide”, but given the identity of some veto powers on the UNSC that’s hypothetical at best.
Why would they? It’s not like they will face any consequences
ICJ is completely useless
“Please be nicer. Thanks.”
That’ll show 'em.
Not ideal, but the reasoning behind it could be practical. If the ICJ demands a ceasefire, Israel will ignore it completely and keep doing what it’s doing. Netanyahu has already said so multiple times. Ordering that measures be taken to limit civilian deaths and allow more aid could result in at least some compliance that would help alleviate the suffering in Gaza.
