A vital ocean current system that helps regulate the Northern Hemisphere’s climate could collapse anytime from 2025 and unleash climate chaos, a controversial new study warns.
The Atlantic Meridional Ocean Current (AMOC), which includes the Gulf Stream, governs the climate by bringing warm, tropical waters north and cold water south.
But researchers now say the AMOC may be veering toward total breakdown between 2025 and 2095, causing temperatures to plummet, ocean ecosystems to collapse and storms to proliferate around the world. However, some scientists have cautioned that the new research comes with some big caveats.
The AMOC can exist in two stable states: a stronger, faster one that we rely upon today, and another that is much slower and weaker. Previous estimates predicted that the current would probably switch to its weaker mode sometime in the next century.
Related: Gulf Stream could be veering toward irreversible collapse, a new analysis warns
But human-caused climate change may push the AMOC to a critical tipping point sooner rather than later, researchers predicted in a new study, published Tuesday (July 25) in the journal Nature Communications.
“The expected tipping point — given that we continue business as usual with greenhouse gas emissions — is much earlier than we expected,” co-author Susanne Ditlevsen, a professor of statistics and stochastic models in biology at the University of Copenhagen, told Live Science.
“It was not a result where we said: ‘Oh, yeah, here we have it’. We were actually bewildered.”
Having seen several sources on this story today, the headline is alarmist and not backed by the story. Here, we have the statistical, nonzero could attempting to coyly play the “lock up the children!” could.
That the AMOC is at risk is not news. But this analysis presents some sobering conjecture that places uncomfortable odds on an “in our lifetime” event.
Just as a word of caution: a computer model is just a model. If there are enough parameters you can tune, it’s fun to play with, seeing what can happen. But just because you get a result from a model doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to happen. Models are written by people, they have software bugs, and more. Obviously they wouldn’t publish this unless they were confident, but the scientific method is a feedback loop, and we’ve only been through that loop once here so far.
What needs to happen now is other scientists need to recreate the model. If it turns out that multiple models point this way, then it’s time to panic.
Wasn’t that the plot of “The Day After Tomorrow.”?
Yep. It’s been on the radar for a while, the film didn’t pull it out of nowhere. Though I think back in the day it was always thought of as a fairly unlikely scenario. But that was some 20 years ago. A lot has sadly not changed at all since then.
Well, we were warned. We f’ed around and now we might find out.
UK infrastructure, especially our shite housing is not set up for us to become Scandinavian.
The Scottish government is moving to require Passivhaus standards in housing construction - beginning 2025. And we’re progressive on this for the UK. Meanwhile the local council is slowing putting ceiling insulation in its council-owned housing. We’re at the basic ceiling insulation level here. Whenever the Gulf Stream goes, it’s going to be incomprehensibly painful.
I think this is really the most terrifying thing on climate change that I’ve read recently. If the Gulf Stream collapses, we are well and truly screwed, and I don’t see how we stop it.
It’s so infuriating knowing we could have collectively stopped things, like we did with the ozone layer in the 80s and 90s, but there was no financial incentive to do so, like there was with getting rid of CFCs (there was a cheaper alternative that had just been developed iirc), so politicians and companies have done exactly jack and shit.
I don’t think it’s that suitable alternatives that could make a lot of headway into limiting the problem dont exist, it’s more that a lot of people are making a lot of money from the status quo and have a vested interest in ensuring the status quo remains. You can bet your bottom dollar that if those people had found a way to continue the gravy train with the alternatives then they would. Eventually they are going to have to consider that if society collapses due to their actions that the currency they are accumulating will be worthless without the societies that dictate its value. I don’t think that will happen until we start seeing some of the climate change chickens come home to roost. It’s going to be unpleasant for a lot of people and might be too late.
The Gulf Stream will probably collapse and be reshaped eventually. We’ve known that for quite some time now. Fortunately, this doesn’t seem to be suggesting anything new or any genuinely imminent threat.
Does that mean it will fucking cool off?? That would be…ok for a bit I suppose. (I work outside and am fucking dying currently)
Well the plus side is that the entire food production of the planet would collapse and you’ll most likely be dead or fighting for food. So, a hot day at work isn’t going to be a problem.
At this point I would almost rather fight for food than make rich people more rich while simultaneously fucking up the planet.
Skip a step. Fight the oligarchs. They’ve stolen all our shit.
I’m a simple man, I hear “day off,” I support it.
That mean artantic temperature on half planet. You gonna die staying outside more that five minutes.
How can a current stop? It doesn’t seem like something that can break?
Did we put to much trash in the ocean and clog it up?
Warmer southerly waters, which are saltier and denser, flow north to cool and sink below waters at higher latitudes, releasing heat into the atmosphere.
Then, once it has sunk beneath the ocean, the water slowly drifts southward, heats up again, and the cycle repeats. But climate change is slowing this flow. Fresh water from melting ice sheets has made the water less dense and salty
This is the premise for the 2004 film The Day After Tomorrow, itself based on the 1999 book The Coming Global Superstorm (co-written by Coast to Coast AM radio host Art Bell). Not a new concern, I think the change for these guys is trying to put a timeline on it.
Yeah, I’ve heard of this scenario basically the first time I heard about climate change period, and that was before 2004.
Probably fresh water from north pole pushing southward and disrupting the currents cold/heat exchange when it mixes with salt water. But I’m tired so I’m probably wrong.
It’s a heat/cold powered cycle … once the temp regulates the same everywhere, there is no more cycle.
Already happening. I am here feeling cold with 22° at night when during the day hits 38°. Then thunderstorms, flooding rivers, destruction on roads with trees fallen everywhere. I am aspecting a record winter with below zero temperature. This society will gonna end for sure.
